Thursday, October 16, 2014

San Francisco 49ers Vs. Denver Broncos

Market Watch

Before Week 6 action, Westgate had this at -6 in the advanced line. It reopened at -7 after the Broncos win (and cover) on Sunday, and but it was moved to -6.5 after the 49ers win on MNF. It's bounced around in this range ever since, and 59% of the tickets are on the Broncos.

Bottom Line

Through six weeks the 49ers haven't had much trouble moving the ball. They rank near the top in 3rd down conversions, and they sit around the middle of the pack in most of the important categories. The main issue has been the red zone. Once inside the 20, execution has gone way down. This is not only a problem going up against Peyton Manning on the road, but the Denver D ranks in the top 10 in almost every measured category.

On the flip side, there are some significant red flags to know about if you want to back the 'Niners. They look good against the pass in the yards category, but they rank bottom 10 in adjusted sack rate, getting off the field on third down, and inside their own red zone.

Not exactly a template you want to have when facing one of the top offenses in the NFL. Making matters worse is the injury to Patrick Willis. They were already without Bowman, so now Peyton will have more than enough options to exploit this unit.

I'm not getting involved in this game, but there's a good chance I add Denver in a teaser this week. They are the only side I would consider given how they matchup.