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Saturday, October 11, 2014

NFL Betting Preview 2014 Week 6: Giants Vs. Eagles

New York Giants Vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Market Watch

Last week Westgate had the Eagles favored by -3.5. Once the dust settled on Week 5 action it reopened at -3. Within hours it had come off the key number to -2.5, where it has sat for most of the week. Usually when a line sits at this number it signifies that the underdog is the better team. When asking yourself which side you like, that's essentially the question you have to ask yourself. Are you sold on the Giants?  Betting is virtually split with 50% of the bets on each side.

Bottom Line

The aspect of this game that is getting the most press is the Eagles offense. What's happened to Shady McCoy?  The film guys say he is not trusting his blockers and unwilling to just pound away for the 4 yard gain.  Some speculate that he hasn't been the same since his concussion earlier this year. There might be a kernal of truth to all that, but I put most of the blame on the banged up OL. Last season every starter played the entire season. Given the scheme of this offense, you can't really afford to have 3-4 guys missing up front and expect a cohesive attack. As a result they've fallen all the way down to 22nd in the Football Outsiders DVOA ranking.

Conversely, the Giants defense have climbed up to the 7th spot in the defensive rankings. On paper, this sets up as a favorable matchup for the Gmen. They are meh at linebacker, but they've solidified things up front and on the back end. Usually that's enough to be an impactful unit in this league.

It wasn't that long ago that these Giants looked like a complete mess. I faded them early in the season until they got their act together, and now that they have I'm not exactly sure what to do with them.

Usually when you have two divisional teams that are this close, I'd roll with the home team if I'm given the option of -2.5. At the same time, if you think the Giants have the edge, you can grab +3 at a square shop like Bovada.

I don't feel strongly about either side, so I'll be sitting this one out.

Read more: Week 6 picks
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