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Monday, October 13, 2014

NFL Betting Preview 2014 Week 6: 49ers Vs. Rams

San Francisco 49ers Vs. St. Louis Rams

Market Watch

In the Westgate look-ahead line, the 49ers were listed as -4.5 point favorites. When this number reopened after Week 5 it was -3.25. It hasn't moved much at all since then. You can grab -3 with a bit of juice if you want the 49ers, and you can get +3.5 with some juice if you like the Rams. A whopping 80% of the tickets are on the 49ers.

Bottom Line

The 49ers defense has performed better than I expected given all the pieces they are missing on that side of the ball, but the offense has been completely ordinary. They wanted to become a more pass-orientated team this year, but Kaepernick continues to be frenetic in the pocket. Is he ever going to mature beyond a one progression QB?

We should find out more in this game because the Rams have been just terrible against the pass this year. A big part of the problem with St. Louis is their anemic pass rush. Where did it go? On paper they should've been one of the best fronts in the league, but they sit 31st in adjusted sack rate. That's just bizarre. Part of it is Chris Long being out, but some of the blame definitely needs to go on Gregg Williams' iffy blitz calls.

On the flip side we have Austin Davis. The scouting report on him screamed average at best, and nothing I ever saw in the preseason gave me reason to think otherwise. Yet, here we are with a handful of impressive performances out of him. He's still making mistakes, but that's to be expected.

I don't trust the Rams coaching staff whatsoever, and I'd still be weary of backing Davis against this defense - despite his progression. At the same time, I don't see enough from this 49ers team to confidently back them as a road favorite in a prime-time spot either. In the end I'm taking a pass on this game.

Read more: Week 7 picks.
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