Saturday, September 27, 2014

New Orleans Saints Vs. Dallas Cowboys: NO -3 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

The Westgate (LVH) look-ahead line in this game was -3.5 for the Saints. Once Week 3 was done, it re-opened at -3.  I don't agree with this adjustment and think it should have gone even higher in favor of New Orleans. Evidently, the Cowboys are beginning to earn some market respect after posting back-to-back wins. Thus far, 70% of the tickets are on the Saints.

Bottom Line

When the Saints came to Dallas last year, they annihilated them 49-17. I don't expect the same score this time, but I do think the Cowboys defense is in for a world of hurt. Yes, they've won two games in a row on the road, but those wins came against Jake Locker and Austin Davis. It's a whole different story when we're talking about Drew Brees. New Orleans should be able to put up 30+ on this unit.

The one thing the Cowboys do have is a formidable offense. The only problem is they are designed to win a certain way. Romo is far more effective if he's throwing less and doing it on the back of a running game. That formula has worked so far, but how much will Murray be running if the Saints get a two or three score lead? I've seen Romo try to impersonate Brett Favre enough times to know how that ends. Also, even if Murray does stay involved, he's fumbled in each game this season. The Saints defense hasn't performed up to expectations yet, but it's not from injuries or a lack of talent. They should be able to slow Dallas down enough to secure this win.

NFL Pick: NO -3.

Read more:

Patriots Vs. Chiefs

Week 4 picks