Monday, September 22, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 4: Jaguars Vs. Chargers

Jacksonville Jaguars Vs. San Diego Chargers: SD -13.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

In the Westgate (LVH) look-ahead line, the Chargers were listed as -9.5 point favorites for this matchup. After another loss by Jacksonville, and a win by San Diego, this number re-opened at -13.5. The question is how high is too high? At this point there's just no way to know, and I'm going to go ahead and keep fading the Jags until they cover.

So far only 59% of the bets are on the Chargers, which actually surprises me.

Bottom Line

Last year the Jaguars were on pace for a historically bad season, and each week you heard touts say that there was value on them. Really? Well they didn't cover six of the first seven games. The only game they did cover in that span was when they were given +26 points (!) against the Broncos.

Fast forward to this season and it's almost like deja vu. Going into their matchup against the Colts, I heard the same thing all week, "the Jags have value at +7, etc etc".

Equally puzzling, "sharp" money pounded the Bills from PK up to -2.5 in Week 3. Why? Apparently because San Diego was due for a "letdown" after beating the Seahawks, and they were a West coast team traveling East for an early game.

Both are good examples of touts out-thinking themselves.

Now the Jags will try Blake Bortles at QB and live with the mistakes on the fly. Well, all I can say is good luck because it could get ugly. He has the misfortune of playing behind a terrible OL and a non-existent running game. Even worse, their defense is embarrassing bad. A QB like Philip Rivers should tear them apart.

If Jacksonville finish within 20 points I'll be genuinely surprised.

NFL Pick: SD -13.5.

Read more: Week 4 picks