Friday, September 19, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 3: Titans Vs. Bengals

Tennessee Titans Vs. Cincinnati Bengals: CIN -6.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

They are who we thought they were? Last week this line was -6.5 in the LVH look-ahead, and it re-opened at the same number after Week 2 action. With the A.J. Green news, some shops have moved this to -7, but you can find -6.5 if you have sportsbook options. 73% of the bets are on the home team.






Bottom Line

Is this one pick too many this week? Perhaps, but I waited all week to see what A.J. Green's status would be. I thought he would be listed as "questionable", but he was upgraded to "probable" after practicing full on Friday. The game plan will still center around Bernard, but they have so many more options with their schemes and matchups with Green on the field. The Titans already lost Verner in the offseason, and now their best secondary player, McCourty, is "questionable" with a groin issue. There's no obvious point of strength on this Titans D, and there are a lot more questions than answers after getting owned by the Cowboys at home.

I wasn't sure what the Bengals would look like this season after losing both coordinators on both sides of the ball, but so far they seem even more aggressive on defense - which is saying something since Guenther is replacing Zimmer. Many of the core concepts are in place, and they dismantled the Falcons in Week 2. There is pretty great continuity with their starters, and they should have a fun day going up against the erratic Jake Locker. If the Titans can't even be competent against the Cowboys defense, I don't give them much hope against Cincy's.

With last week's win and cover, the Bengals are now 9-0 ATS at home going back to last year. Very quietly, they have become one of the best teams on home turf, and I expect that to continue on Sunday. If you're uneasy laying the points, they are also a great teaser option for Week 3.

NFL Pick: CIN -6.5.

Read more: Week 3 picks