Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Green Bay Packers Vs. Detroit Lions: GB +3 (-123) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Are the Lions getting a lot of respect or is the market down on the Packers?  It's probably a combination of both, but I still have Green Bay rated higher until I see otherwise. The LVH look-ahead line had the Packers -1. After Week 2 action, it re-opened at Lions -2.5. It's moved back and forth a bit, but right now we can get Green Bay +3 for -120ish depending on where you shop. Usually the Packers are -3 (or more) when they travel to Detroit in the Stafford era. So far 63% of the tickets are on the road team.

Bottom Line

Last week I actually liked the Lions in their matchup in Carolina. They outplayed the Panthers for much of the day, but turnovers and missed field goals did them in. Now they have the unfortunate task to pick up the pieces and beat Green Bay.

The good news for Detroit is they are fairly healthy on offense, so they should be able to put up points. The question is whether or not they can put up enough. This is going to be a good test for the Packers defense. A lot of people are down on this unit, but I'm reserving judgment until I see more. I like what they have on paper, so I'm willing to roll the dice on them here.

The bad news for the Lions is their secondary is about to get exposed. I think the last thing they want to see right now is a duo like Rodgers and Nelson. Slay has played ok, but that was against the Giants and Panthers so let's not get carried away just yet. Mathis is starting opposite of him, who is old and a zone-based, not man-to-man. They ignored this unit in the offseason, lost Bentley to injury (who was equally bad anyways) and the time has come to pay the price for that.

And if this game is close in the 4th quarter? Well, the Lions are giving rookie kicker Nate Freese one more chance. But don't worry kid, it's only a huge divisional game in front of your home fans with your job on the line - no pressure.

NFL Pick: GB +3.

Read more: Week 3 picks