Monday, September 22, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 4: Lions Vs. Jets

Detroit Lions Vs. New York Jets: DET PK (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

The Westgate (LVH) look-ahead line actually had the Jets as -1.5 point favorites for this game.  After the Lions took care of the Packers, it re-opened as a pick em.  MNF will determine where this number goes after that, but I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit wind up the favorite on the closing line. I'd feel comfortable taking them at anything less than a field goal. A whopping 87% of bets are on the Lions in this game.



Bottom Line

Regardless of whether the Jets win on MNF or not, I don't like their chances against the Lions. Without good cornerbacks, New York is going to have to be creative against good passing teams. They do know how to shut down the run, but that's not how you stop Detroit.  Much like the Packers did in Week 2, I expect the Lions to attack the Jets vertically and get a lead.

And what happens when the Jets have to play from behind? They have to lean on Geno Smith. To Detroit's credit, they were able to disrupt the Packers offense with a dominant pass rush. That is a huge feat considering the liabilities they have on the back end. I don't think the Lions will get away with that every week, but New York don't have enough weapons to take advantage of aerial mismatches - especially when Smith is so inconsistent.

Finally, it doesn't look like I'll have to sweat another Nate Freese field goal attempt. He missed another one in Week 3, so he's probably gone.  A new kicker should be worth .. what? An extra 3 or 6 points in the game? I'll take it.

NFL Pick: DET PK.

Read more: Week 4 picks