Sunday, September 14, 2014

San Diego Chargers Vs. Buffalo Bills: SD +1 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

This is a curious point spread. The Chargers were -2.5 point favorites a week ago in the look-ahead line, but it re-opened with the Bills as -1 point favorites after Week 2 action. It's clearly a sign of respect for Buffalo after back-to-back wins against superior competition. 57% of the early bets are on the Chargers.

Bottom Line

I was really tempted to take the Chargers as +6 point dogs in Week 2, but I took a pass because I wasn't in the mood to fade Seattle in back-to-back weeks. I wasn't surprised San Diego won, but I was surprised how they won. Which was more impressive? The defense .. which ranked at the bottom of the barrel last year? Or the offense .. which controlled the clock for 42 minutes? Either way, I'm still high on this team until I see otherwise.

Buffalo will be tough at home and they are playing with house money now that they are at the top of the division. Watkins looks great, EJ Manual is managing the game as required, and the defense hasn't slipped as much as people expected.  Will it all translate into a 3-0 start to the season? I'm willing to bet against it. This will be their toughest test yet.

NFL Pick: SD +1.

Read more: Week 3 picks