Thursday, September 11, 2014

St. Louis Rams Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -6 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

How much do the markets hate the Rams? A week ago this line was -2.5 in the LVH look-ahead line. After they got smoked at home this line got re-opened at -3.5, quickly went to -4, and jumped up to -5.5 not long after.  62% of the bets are on the Bucs so far, and the line sits at -6 at the time of this write-up. I usually pass on a line that has already moved this much, but I think this number should be at -7 at minimum, and I'm expecting the Bucs to win by double digits.

Bottom Line

There is no clear QB for the Rams yet, but it's unlikely that we'll see S Hill play. That leaves us with A Davis in his first career start against a really stout defense on the road. He's a short-to-intermediate passer who lacks arm strength to hit targets accurately downfield. Even if Hill did somehow get the start, would it matter? I have no idea what the Rams do with their play-calling, but they don't seem to have a clue how to use Tavon Austin yet, and when you lack play-makers, that's a problem. TB's defense should feast on Sunday.

The play-calling is even stranger on the other side of the ball. Why is G Williams blitzing so much when he has one of the best front four pass rushes in the NFL?  My only reservation about this pick is the fact that J McCown is at QB, but he is at least "average", which should be better than anything the Rams can offer.

NFL Pick: TB -6.

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