Saturday, September 13, 2014

Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Indianapolis Colts: IND -3 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

LVH set the look-ahead line for this game at Colts -2.5.  It re-opened at -3, but it could have been even more than that if the Eagles didn't stage a massive 2nd half comeback versus the Jaguars.

Some shops have added a bit of juice to Indy's side, and 81% of the early wagers are on the home team. I'm not saying this is going to move off the -3, but I'd rather lock in this pick now rather than waiting.

Bottom Line

I was skeptical about Philly heading into last season, and I'm not exactly sold on them this year either. There's a lot to like about their offense, and Chip Kelly is going to remain schematically aggressive, but there are already some red flags this year. Part of what made them so effective in 2013 was a superb OL that stayed healthy the entire year. They entered this season with L Johnson on the sideline due to suspension, and now they will be without his replacement Barbre. Even worse, E Mathis was lost at guard in Week 1. Cluster injuries are never good, especially up front.

Luckily for Philly there is no R Mathis to worry about, and I expect them to attack Indy's D up the middle of the field, but it should still come down to Foles. I still need to see him do better in pressure situations and I don't think a game-manager-type game will be enough to beat the Colts.

The Colts offense have enough options to keep Philly's D off-balance due to their receiving options and the skill of Luck...and if this one is close late in the 4th quarter, which QB do you want on your side? Give me the home team in prime-time.

NFL Pick: IND -3.

Read more: Week 2 Picks