Monday, September 8, 2014

Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Denver Broncos: DEN -13 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

In the LVH look-ahead line, they had the Broncos as -10.5 point favorites. Once KC puked all over themselves in Week 1, books re-opened this line at -12 on Sunday, and it's been bet up to -13 on Monday.

Is this a typical overreaction to Week 1 action? I'm inclined to say no. Not only because KC flopped at home, but also because of some key injuries on defense. 86% of the bets are on Denver, and I won't be shocked if this hits -14 by kickoff.

Bottom Line

Over the course of an NFL season I usually lay double-digits points once a year. I have to see a monumental mismatch with low chances of a backdoor cover - and that's what should transpire on Sunday when these teams take the field. Consider for a moment that the Broncos won all 9 games last year against non-playoff teams by an average of 18.5 points. The only team that came close were the Cowboys, who lost by 3 points at home. Among the other 8, no one came closer than 16 points.

In Week 1 I assumed that KC would take care of the Titans with solid defense and an offense built around Charles. Neither of those things happened, and now KC enter this one without D Johnson and DeVito - two starters they couldn't afford to lose on D. The depth on this roster just isn't there, and now they face a Broncos team that is better (on paper) than last year.

The best chance KC have at staying within two TDs is if their special teams comes up with huge plays, the defense creates turnovers that lead to points, and Charles/Smith have an A+ game on offense. In reality, the Broncos should win this one comfortably.

NFL Pick: DEN -13.

Read more: Week 2 Picks