Wednesday, September 3, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 1: Titans Vs. Chiefs

Tennessee Titans Vs. Kansas City Chiefs: KC -3.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

This line opened at -5 at the LVH back in May, while offshore books opened at -5.5. Either way, we've seen a steady fade of the Kansas City Chiefs. Right now we're looking at -3.5, but the question is whether or not it will go all the way down to -3. While it's true that the Chiefs are one of the classic "regression" teams this year, I don't know that there's enough market confidence in the Titans. I may regret not waiting, but I think this line should be -4 at minimum anyways. 64% of the bets so far are on KC.

Bottom Line

Everybody shook their head when Alex Smith was given his contract, but people are fading KC for other reasons this year. In 2013 they had the easiest schedule in the league, a 60% fumble recovery rate on route to a 2nd overall ranking in turnover differential, and they were the healthiest team in the NFL. It's a no-brainer that they are due for a regression, but I still like them enough to take care of the Titans.

I haven't seen anything out of Locker to believe he's about to have a break out season. His WRs are as good as he's ever had, but with an iffy OL and suspect rushing game, there will be too much pressure on Locker to go into a hostile environment on opening day to pull out a win.

On D, the Titans are on the verge of a heavy learning curve with a bunch of players that weren't suited for Horton's scheme. There is no obvious point of strength here, they lost Verner, and I don't know how they'll be able to get reliable pressure.

It might not be pretty, but KC should be able to take care of business to kick off the season. Worries about their expected downfall can wait until Week 2.

NFL Pick: KC -3.5.