It's hard to say exactly what the true line for game should be, but I think this is a bit too inflated. If GB is as good as I think they are, this number should be -4 or -4.5.
Bottom LineI'm a pretty big believer in Aaron Rodgers, especially going into hostile environments. Yet, I've been on the wrong side of a couple really bad beats because of it. Two years ago in Seattle I was on them only to watch the infamous "touception". Last year I took them as dogs in SF to open the season, but lost due to a last minute insurance field goal.
Bad Beat Alert: Packers +5, ouch.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) September 8, 2013
The game will likely be decided when GB's defense is on the field. A healthy Harvin is going to exponentially expand the offensive scheme. We got a taste of how dangerous that can be in the playoffs last year. Capers has morphed his unit into a mix of man and zone and their roster is healthy to start the season. The Seahawks had a lousy OL last year and we don't know how much improvement there will be, if at all. If Peppers can prove effective (big if), I like this matchup.
I'm not overly confident GB will win this game, but I think if anyone were to go into Seattle and walk away with a W this year, it will be them. Either way, I expect them to keep it close enough for a cover.
NFL Pick: GB +6.