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Thursday, September 4, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 1: Packers Vs. Seahawks

Green Bay Packers Vs. Seattle Seahawks: GB +6 (Bovada)

Market Watch

This point spread was originally -5 when it was first released at LVH in May, and there has been virtually no movement on the line until this week. At the moment it sits at -6, but I'd be surprised if goes any further. Action is split down the middle, but I imagine more money is on the 'Hawks.

It's hard to say exactly what the true line for game should be, but I think this is a bit too inflated.  If GB is as good as I think they are, this number should be -4 or -4.5.

Bottom Line

I'm a pretty big believer in Aaron Rodgers, especially going into hostile environments. Yet, I've been on the wrong side of a couple really bad beats because of it. Two years ago in Seattle I was on them only to watch the infamous "touception". Last year I took them as dogs in SF to open the season, but lost due to a last minute insurance field goal.
Other than the obvious concern of the madhouse environment on opening night, my two concerns with this pick is the GB OL and Percy Harvin. Will Rodgers finally get some protection? It should help if Lacy can be productive, but Seattle's LBs are fast and smart. The consolation is that the Seahawks DL isn't as deep as it was a year ago after losing Clemons, McDonald, and Bryant. That might force them to play guys more than 60% of their snaps, but we'll see. I trust the GB offense to put up points no matter who the opponent is this year.

The game will likely be decided when GB's defense is on the field. A healthy Harvin is going to exponentially expand the offensive scheme. We got a taste of how dangerous that can be in the playoffs last year. Capers has morphed his unit into a mix of man and zone and their roster is healthy to start the season. The Seahawks had a lousy OL last year and we don't know how much improvement there will be, if at all. If Peppers can prove effective (big if), I like this matchup.

I'm not overly confident GB will win this game, but I think if anyone were to go into Seattle and walk away with a W this year, it will be them. Either way, I expect them to keep it close enough for a cover.

NFL Pick: GB +6.
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