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Sunday, September 21, 2014

NFL Betting Preview 2014 Week 4: Giants Vs. Redskins

New York Giants Vs. Washington Redskins

Market Watch

After Week 3 action, this line opened with the Redskins as -5 point favorites, but in last week's look-ahead line it was only -3.5.  Clearly the market did not agree with the adjustment because -5 quickly got bet down within hours. On Monday, the number went all the way down to -3 before it came back up to -3.5, where it seems to have settled for now. It's hard to get a strong grasp on either of these teams, but I think -3.5 or -4 is where it should be. 63% of the bets are on the Skins.

Bottom Line

So what is the story with Kirk Cousins? The general consensus seems to be that he is better for this offense than RG3, but I'm not sold on his ability just yet. Yeah he can make some nice passes, and at times he looks like he belongs, but he could also turn out to be a flop. As the saying goes, "everyone loves the backup QB, until he becomes the starter".  Against the Eagles he was 5-for-5 on third down to start the game, but went 0-for-7 in those situations the rest of the game.

Washington also have a long list of players banged up, and DeAngelo Hall was lost for the season. And can they fix their special teams? It was epic bad a year ago, and the changes have been underwhelming at best.

On the other side, the Giants finally put together a solid game with a win over the Texans. I wasn't expecting that, and I'm still skeptical about their chances going forward. The interior of their OL scares me, Eli is hit or miss, and their defensive front seven is suspect outside of JPP.

Both offenses should have their fair share of opportunities in this game, but it's anyone's guess as to how it will play out. Road teams have lost by 20+ points in every Thursday game so far this season, which means the Giants are an automatic pass for me. At the same time, I can't confidently back Washington given the litany of question marks in all three phases of their team.

Flip a coin.

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