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Saturday, September 27, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014 Week 4: Patriots Vs. Chiefs

New England Patriots Vs. Kansas City Chiefs: NE -3 (-115) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

In the Westgate look-ahead line, the Patriots were -6.5, but when it re-opened after Week 3, it was only -3.5. We've now seen a move down to -3 (with juice). The question is whether or not this line is an overadjustment or not. I'm willing to say yes, but we'll see how it shakes out at kickoff.  Bets are almost split down the middle with 52% on the Chiefs.

Bottom Line

After a poor New England showing in Miami in Week 1, "sharp" money came in on the Vikings in Week 2. The line got adjusted down from -6 to -3.5 before the AP news, but even after AP was ruled out the line got steamed down again on gameday. Sound familiar?  Once again the Patriots struggled against the Raiders last week and now face more doubters for their Week 4 matchup in KC.  I still think it's too early to write off these Patriots, and we could be getting rare line value on them for the second time this season.

Much like the Packers, all the stories this week are revolving around the struggling Patriots offense. That's fair given how iffy their offensive line is, but let's consider who is missing from the KC defense. D Johnson was a terror at linebacker, but he's out. Berry is the QB in the secondary, but he's fighting a high ankle sprain and likely out, too. The Dolphins couldn't take advantage of that, but I'm willing to bet that New England can. KC will still cause problems with Houston and Hali, but this is also a KC defense that has yet to force a turnover this season.

Also like Green Bay, the real story of this game could be New England's defense. It's still too early to declare them a top 10 group, but they are flying under the radar thus far. Granted, they've put up good games against the lowly Vikings and Raiders, but it's not like the Chiefs are offensive juggernauts either. Charles is on track to play, but like Berry, he's fighting an uphill battle with a high ankle sprain. They'd probably be better off going with K Davis.

Finally, it was thought that KC's special teams would be another big asset this year after dominating this aspect of the game last year, but they've been very average through three weeks of the season.

NFL Pick: NE -3.

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