Market WatchI thought the wrong team was favored, and I got to sit back and watch Seattle cash my ticket with ease. This time around, deciding which side has value is a whole lot trickier. The LVH had the Seahawks favored by -4.5 in the look-ahead line, and it re-opened at the same number after Week 2. It's moved up to -5, but -4.5's are still out there. So far, 57% of the bets are on the Broncos.
The bigger question might be whether or not Manning can figure out this Seahawks defense? He's had a lot of time to break down film. He also has Ryan Clady protecting him - something he didn't have in the Super Bowl. That, combined with the losses on Seattle's DL in the offseason, should provide their offense with a fighting chance in this rematch. The one x-factor in this equation is the 12th man though, which could nullify whatever advantage Denver think they have.
When we add it all up, I think there is some value on Denver here, but we also have to be realistic about fading Seattle at home. I already tried that in Week 1 with the Packers and it didn't turn out so well. In the Pete Carroll era they've covered 25 of 36 games at home, by an average of six points.
Ultimately, a real fair case could be made for either side, which means I'll be taking a pass.
Read more: Week 3 picks