Friday, September 19, 2014

Denver Broncos Vs. Seattle Seahawks

Market Watch

When these teams met in the Super Bowl I thought the wrong team was favored, and I got to sit back and watch Seattle cash my ticket with ease. This time around, deciding which side has value is a whole lot trickier. The LVH had the Seahawks favored by -4.5 in the look-ahead line, and it re-opened at the same number after Week 2. It's moved up to -5, but -4.5's are still out there. So far, 57% of the bets are on the Broncos.

Bottom Line

The biggest reason I liked the Seahawks in the Super Bowl was because the Broncos defense was outmatched and undermanned. They didn't have Von Miller, Derek Wolfe, Rahim Moore, or Chris Harris. All those guys are back for this game, plus DeMarcus Ware. That is going to present Seattle's offense with a different set of challenges on Sunday. The good news for Seattle is they are at home, and they have a healthy Percy Harvin. They'll put up points, but they might have to work harder for them this time.

The bigger question might be whether or not Manning can figure out this Seahawks defense? He's had a lot of time to break down film. He also has Ryan Clady protecting him - something he didn't have in the Super Bowl. That, combined with the losses on Seattle's DL in the offseason, should provide their offense with a fighting chance in this rematch. The one x-factor in this equation is the 12th man though, which could nullify whatever advantage Denver think they have.

When we add it all up, I think there is some value on Denver here, but we also have to be realistic about fading Seattle at home. I already tried that in Week 1 with the Packers and it didn't turn out so well. In the Pete Carroll era they've covered 25 of 36 games at home, by an average of six points.

Ultimately, a real fair case could be made for either side, which means I'll be taking a pass.

Read more: Week 3 picks