Friday, September 19, 2014

Chicago Bears Vs. New York Jets: CHI +3 (-120) (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Last week the Jets were listed as -1.5 point favorites in the LVH look-ahead line. After Week 2 finished New York had re-opened at -2. Since Monday morning that has gone up to -2.75. If you like the Jets you can get them at -2.5 for -120. Like the Bears? You can get +3 for the same price. Where will this line go? 66% percent of the bets are on Chicago, but so far the line is moving the other way.


Bottom Line

Who was the right side in the Bears-49ers game? You could easily argue either case. The same goes for the Jets-Packers game, which landed as a "push". Both games were whacky affairs, and now we have the pleasure of watching them square off against each other in prime-time.

So what is the team to back?

Cutler is traditionally below-average in national TV games, but he did just fine last Sunday night (even tho the 49ers gave him a lot of help). They are banged up on the OL, but still have receivers who can win jump balls at any moment - and Forte can take over a game if defenses leave 7 man fronts. On paper, the Jets should be in big trouble given the state of their secondary. It's just that much harder to implement Ryan's scheme without reliable starters on the back end.

On the flip side it's sad to see Tillman go down, but they could be alright if Fuller continues to shine. They are still poor at LB, but can a team like the Jets take advantage? G Smith might be better than last year, but he's still really erratic. Now his favorite target, Decker, is iffy to play - and even if he does, how effective can he be with a hamstring injury?

Chicago have the advantage in the air and face off against a raw, inconsistent QB who lacks weapons at the skill positions. Theoretically, the Bears should be able to win this game straight up, and if books want to give us the option of +3, I'm happy to take it.

NFL Pick: CHI +3.

Read more: Week 4 picks