Saturday, September 13, 2014

Chicago Bears Vs. San Francisco 49ers

Market Watch

Before Week 1 the look-ahead line for this prime-time game had the 49ers favored by -6.5. So it's no surprise that it re-opened at -7 after what we saw last weekend. It hasn't moved off that key number all week, but you do have to lay a bit of extra juice if you like the Bears to cover. If you haven't got involved in this game yet, the question is where will this line go?  It should just stay at -7, but since it's the Sunday Night game, it could move to -7.5. So far 68% of the bets are on the 49ers.

Bottom Line

The 49ers are going to be more of a passing team in 2014, and they should have an advantage this week going up against a questionable Bears secondary. Chicago's run D seems improved, but is that saying much given how bad they were last year? There should be enough options for Kaepernick to keep them off balance either way.

The Bears offense has even more concerns. It's never good to be down two offensive linemen after the first week, but it's especially bad if one of them is your center. Jeffery is expected to play, but even if he does, how effective will he be? Hamstring injuries are the kind that linger. If they get down in this game, do you want Cutler going into gun-slinger mode in a nationally televised game? Their one saving grace might be the fact that the 49ers secondary is also beat up, and this is a D that was already missing Bowman and A Smith.

This line is too high for me to confidently back San Fran, but I never like the idea of Cutler in a prime-time game either. The best value I see is teasing the 49ers down.

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