Sunday, September 7, 2014

Indianapolis Colts Vs. Denver Broncos

Market Watch

Since this point spread was released at -7 back in May at the LVH there hasn't been a lot of change. Yet, they didn't really have a choice but to move it up to -7.5 since books have seen a steady stream of bets on the home team for months.  71% of the tickets are on the Broncos, but it's possible that late money brings this back down to -7 by kickoff.

Bottom Line

Does anybody really know how good the Colts will be? Last year they were 5-1 in close games and beat some of the top teams, but they still finished up remarkably average. Can they repeat the success they had over the Broncos last October?

It's unlikely.

In that game they got to play at home, had 2 sacks from Mathis, and didn't have to face the likes of Von Miller. That script is almost entirely flipped for their opening night tilt on Sunday. The obvious exploit will be when Peyton is attacking the holes on the Indy D, but the real story from this game could be the emergence of the Denver defense. If they can stay healthy, they have a chance to put this team over the top.

At -7.5 the spread is a tad too high to ride the Broncos, but it's also justified when we consider the mismatches. At the same time, given Luck's ability in the 4th quarter and late in games, it wouldn't be too surprising that he comes up with a backdoor cover either, so I'll be taking a pass. The best value we have is to tease them down.