Sunday, January 19, 2014

NFL Predictions 2014: Championship Playoffs

Favorites/underdogs split the Divisional round with a 2-2 record.

After going 3-1 in the Wild Card round, I stuck with the value on the board for the Divisional games, but it only translated into a 1-2-1 week.

The vast majority of Saints bettors had a push, but money came pouring in on the Seahawks once the gameday weather reports came out. If you took the Saints late, you walked away with a backdoor cover. The Chargers had a backdoor cover of their own with a 4th quarter rally.

The Colts and Panthers proved they aren't quite ready for prime time, but full credit to the Patriots and 49ers for winning the "make or break moments". In the red zone, New England went 5 for 6 and San Francisco went 2 for 4. Indy and Carolina were each 0-2 respectively. During the season, the advanced stats suggested a different outcome, but playoff experience and coaching were big factors.

We now have two games to go before the big one and the opening lines are out. The Seahawks opened as -3 or -3.5 point favorites (depending on where you look).  Denver came out at -6, but it has quickly been bet down to -5 and -4.5.

Check back during the week for full previews and picks for both games.