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Wednesday, December 11, 2013

NFL Predictions 2013 Week 15: Seahawks vs Giants

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants: SEA -7 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

For some strange reason the Giants have been getting more respect in the markets than they deserve. This is a "dead" football team just riding out the season. As mentioned last week, they had a surge of pride and put together a decent month of football, but they were never as good as the point spreads have indicated.

Look no further than last week's LVH look-ahead line where the Seahawks were only favored by -5.5 points for this game. When the line re-opened, it was adjusted up to -7.

Since then we haven't seen any movement, but by my metrics, Seattle should be favored by at least -7.5.

81% of the bets are fading the Giants.

Bottom Line

The Seattle offense isn't going to blow anyone out like some of the other top teams in the league, but what they do, they do very efficiently.  We know that they love to grind out yards on the ground with Lynch, and Wilson is always a threat to gain a first down with his legs. They are also an above average passing game, even without Harvin.

The Giants defense isn't as bad as they were earlier in the season, but they still lack talent on this side. There's a few guys that can be difference makers, but over the course of 60 minutes, this isn't a unit that holds up very well against good teams. The real challenge will be finding the will to battle in the "make-or-break" moments. Over the last few weeks Seattle has really raised their game when it counts, rising in the rankings for both third down and red zone efficiency.

Much like KC, the Seahawks also thrive in the peripheral categories. Seattle rank near the top on special teams and turnover differential. The Giants? They're near the bottom in both. This is not only a sign of discipline and coaching, but also quality depth on the roster - something the Seahawks have in spades.

Yet, the biggest challenge for the Giants will be when Eli has the ball. Seattle rank #1 in pass defense, and their red zone defense is among the best in the NFL. It would be a big surprise if New York won the battle in these areas, and it's compounded by the fact that they aren't very good at sustaining long drives.

The X's and O's favor Seattle across the board, and I'm not sure the Giants are inspired enough to win games anymore. I'll go ahead and lay the touchdown and bank on a comfortable two score win from the 'Hawks.

NFL Pick: SEA -7.
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