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Wednesday, December 4, 2013

NFL Predictions 2013 Week 14: Giants vs Chargers

New York Giants vs San Diego Chargers: SD -3 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

If you want to talk about bizarre point spreads, look no further than this one. In the LVH look-ahead line, the Chargers were -3.5 point favorites. When lines reopened, they were still listed at that number.

Yet, curiously early money came in on the Giants and it now sits at -3 (with extra juice).

I can understand that the Giants aren't as abysmal as they were earlier in the season, but I'm not convinced that they are even with San Diego in the power rankings as this number suggests.

It also looks like most bettors agree with that as 69% of the bets are on the Chargers.

Bottom Line

Obviously, what we have here are two badly flawed teams. There isn't much that San Diego does well on defense. They don't have corners that can free up the rest of the defense (though they did improve last week thanks to Weddle and Marshall), and key injuries have left them mediocre up front (no sacks last week).

The good news is the NY's offense is riddled with inconsistency. Guys have been in and out all year and they still can't protect Eli. Over the last few weeks, they've trended downwards on both third down and in the red zone.

Key for this game is whether or not the Giants can stop this Chargers offense. Outside of Tuck, Kiwanuka, and Beason, this is a group lacking in talent. They might get some guys back in their secondary, but will it be enough?

In the end, this is destined to be an ugly game. I do have enough faith in Rivers and company to put up enough points for the win and cover though. There is still a half-decent chance they can remain in the wild card hunt with a win, which can't be said about the Gmen. Once we add home field advantage, it all adds up to some value on San Diego. I think Vegas had it right the first time when they set this line at -3.5.

NFL Pick: SD -3.
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