Friday, December 6, 2013

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers: ATL +3.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Since this game has been off the board for over a week, the only thing to report here is the opening line which just came out today.

The Packers are listed as -3.5 point favorites, and I don't understand why. I know some snow is expected at Lambeau Field, but I'm more concerned about wind, and there isn't much of that expected on Sunday.

Bottom Line

I know the expectation here is that Lacy will grind out drives in the cold weather while Mathews, Perry and company take advantage of a suspect Falcons offensive line, but is that enough to overcome Matt Flynn?

Lt's not overlook the passing game for these teams. Matt Flynn is better in the Green Bay system than elsewhere, but he's still a below average quarterback. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has put together a really good year in spite of everything going on around him. His rough patch came when he was forcing too many balls to keep his team relevant.

Roddy White is finally healthy and looking good, Harry Douglas has performed well, and Tony Gonzalez is expected to play despite being a bit banged up.  Steven Jackson isn't going to scare anyone, but he's also had a few good games in a row.

It might not be pretty, but I think Atlanta's passing game will be enough to cover (and possibly win) this game. The Packers are 0-5 ATS since losing Rodgers, and this point spread should be closer to a 'pick em'. I'll take the points and roll with the Falcons.

NFL Pick: ATL +3.5.