Sunday, December 1, 2013

NFL Preview 2013 Week 13: Giants vs Redskins

New York Giants vs Washington Redskins

Market Watch

The Redskins continue to fall in the power rankings. Before Week 12, they were pegged as -1.5 point favorites for this game in the Las Vegas look-ahead line. They had a poor showing against the 49ers in prime-time, while the Giants took the Cowboys down to the wire. As a result, the Giants opened as -1 point favorites when the lines reopened on Monday. Since then, the line hasn't moved at all.

What should the true line be? If you go by the numbers, Washington should be favored by at least a field goal. Usually that would indicate clear value on the Skins, but they don't look like a team that is interested in winning any football games. This happens every year as the schedule unfolds and teams fall out of playoff contention.

As it stands now, 75 percent of the bets are on New York.

Keep an eye on

Analyzing the X's and O's for this matchup might be a monumental waste of time. Both teams are plagued by wild swings this season and lots of garbage time stats.  The Giants were dead to start the season, only to bounce back with stronger play. They are a bit overrated in the market, but that doesn't mean they won't win this game. The Redskins also started the season in poor form before they showed some signs of life in October. That didn't last long though, and the team appears to be unraveling before our eyes.

The Gmen should be able to do what they want on offense since there isn't much the Skins defense does well this year. Brian Orakpo and Jarvis Jenkins are the only two players who have played the run well, so we could see a lot of Andre Brown and Brandon Jacobs. On the flip side, the Giants have been strong against the run this year, but with Jason Pierre-Paul out, there should be opportunities for this Washington ground game.

At quarterback, Eli Manning has been consistently average, while RG3 has been boom or bust. Which one has the advantage? The Giants pass defense have been better this year, but with Corey Webster out, it's anyone's guess. Losing Pierre-Paul also deflates an already poor pass rush.

Bottom Line

Ultimately, this looks to be an ugly mess of a game. The Redskins should win, but their play doesn't reflect their potential. One could also argue that the Giants are primed for the win, especially when you consider all the drama going on in Washington, but does anyone have any faith in New York, really?

Neither team have a realistic shot at the playoffs, so what this comes down to is a game of pride. Which team will come out on top? You might as well flip a coin.