Monday, November 25, 2013

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Redskins

Market Watch

Depending on how your weekend went, you may or may not want to bet this game. If you do, there's no excuse for not getting the best number for either side. If you liked the 49ers, you should be sitting with -4. If you are on the Skins, you should have +6 (and possibly better).

A week ago this line was set at -4 in the look-ahead. When it reopened after Week 11, it was -5.  Early action came in on the 49ers and it was sitting at -6 by midweek. The line proceeded to go back down until it reached -4 on Sunday.

Today, it looks like people are banking on the 49ers to either salvage their weekend or enhance it.  The best price is -5 at Pinnacle, but most shops have -5.5. If you like the dog, you can grab +6 at some square books.

78% of the bets are on the 49ers.

Bottom Line

I could delve into the X's and O's for this matchup, but that hasn't meant much when it comes to Redskins games this season. When there appears to be value on them, they lay an egg. When the chips are stacked against them, the find a way to cover.

On paper, Washington (surprisingly) match up pretty well with the 49ers. Both QB's have underacheived, but they aren't terrible. They can both run the ball with aplomb too. Washington actually have a better third down rate this season, but each team does a great job punching the ball in for touchdowns when inside the 20.

The big differences come in pass defense, red zone defense, and special teams - all of which favor the 49ers. The question is whether or not San Fran can take advantage? The 49ers passing game hasn't been as effective as last season. Injuries haven't helped, but we expect more from Kaepernick. Special teams account for about 1/7th of a game, but it can be very random game to game (especially in prime-time).

Statistically, there is value on Washington in this spot. I would set this line at SF -3, and -3.5 at the most. Not to oversimply things, but the winner of this game will likely come down to who plays better at QB. Given how inconsistent each side have been this season, I can't pull the trigger for this one.