Saturday, November 30, 2013

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets: MIA +2 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Usually when a team is a -2.5 point favorite and it doesn't go all the way to -3, there's a good reason for it. This is once again the case for the Dolphins/Jets matchup.

A week ago, the Jets were -2.5. The books reopened them up at -2 after Week 12, and some early support moved it back to -2.5. Since then there hasn't been much to report.  The current line sits somewhere between -1 and -2.

Realistically, this game should be a 'pick em', and one could even argue the wrong team is favored.

Bottom Line

Most of the AFC is just terrible, so this game actually has some meaning to it. However, deciphering which team has the advantage can be a challenge. The Dolphins offensive line is a serious liability and the Jets have the ability to exploit it. On the other side, Geno Smith has been the worst graded quarterback in the entire NFL.

The best New York defenders are all on the defensive line, which is bad news for Miami fans. Yet, the good news is they get Pouncey back, and Tannehill has been more efficient than one would expect at getting the ball out quickly and accurately. It would help if we knew what to expect from the Dolphins running game, but they have shown signs of life this year. They'll also have a chance to take advantage of a highly questionable Jets secondary if they can find the time to get the ball down field. Finally, the Jets red zone defense has been piss poor all year and they continue to trend downwards.

Complicating matters for New York is what to do on offense. Geno Smith continues to be a turnover machine, which only puts more stress on the defense. On top of this, Holmes and Kerley are questionable to play. If Smith has any hopes of moving the ball, he'll need to focus on the middle of the field and resist the urge to force balls where they don't belong. If this season has told us anything, chances are that Smith will make more than his share of mistakes. The Dolphins aren't great on defense, but they should be able to hold their own in this matchup.

Miami is an ugly team to back, especially on the road, but this is just as much a fade of Geno Smith as it is a play on the Dolphins.

NFL Pick: MIA +2.