Sunday, November 10, 2013

NFL Predictions 2013: Week 10

Week 9 is in the books and with the Bears cover, dogs took the week at 7-6. Overall, favorites are ahead 66-63-3 for the season. Overs continue to reign supreme and went 7-5-1 for another winning week, which brings the season total to 70-59-2.

The Las Vegas Supercontest top five consensus picks lost again with a 1-4 ATS record. They are now 11-33-1 (25%) on the year. Football Outsiders went 5-8 with their picks, and now stand at 55-76-2 (41.5%) on the season.

We just passed the midway point of the NFL season and it's been a strange first half of the season to say the least.  To illustrate I came across this tweet by Football Outsider's Scott Kacsmar,

The timing of this couldn't have been more appropriate as I lost two more close games in Week 9, both in overtime.

I went back through all my picks for the regular season and found that in 17 of them, either team could have legitimately covered the spread in the final few minutes of the game. In those picks, my record is 4-13.  That is a really low sample size so variance is inherently high, but to say that I've been on the wrong side of the coin-flip outcomes is an understatement.

Also, I've only been on the wrong side of line movement 6 times in 46 picks. I beat the closing line in 28 of them. So it hasn't been an issue of finding value and beating the market either. But the only thing keeping this a profitable season at this point is the 20-4 record on teasers.

We'll see if the bounces return my way in second half of the season, but so far the sportsbooks are on pace for a phenomenal season.

I'll be adding Week 10 picks throughout the week, so refresh for updates.


Survivor Pick

If you're still alive in a survivor pool, it means you avoided the New Orleans Saints disaster in Week 9. They were among the top 3 picks along with Seattle and Dallas. The latter two barely escaped too, but somehow found a way to pull it out. Options are getting slim..

Week 10: Tennessee Titans

Week 9: Dallas Cowboys
Week 8: New Orleans Saints
Week 7: Green Bay Packers
Week 6: San Francisco 49ers
Week 5: Atlanta Falcons
Week 4: Denver Broncos
Week 3: Seattle Seahawks
Week 2: Houston Texans
Week 1: Indianapolis Colts