Monday, October 28, 2013

Seattle Seahawks vs St Louis Rams

Market Watch

It's always interesting to see how much public perception changes with a quarterback change. A week ago the LVH had Seattle at -5 point favorites for tonight's game, but after the Bradford injury the line re-opened at -10.

Apparently, that wasn't high enough. Nobody has any faith in Kellen Clemens, and with good reason. The line has been bet all the way up to -13.5 now, and some sportsbooks went all the way to -14.

A whopping 83 percent of the bets are on the Seahawks.

What to watch for

Like most games in Week 8, this one doesn't set up to be very competitive. The Rams offense wasn't very good to begin with, and now they have a guy that nobody wants under center. To give you an idea of how bad Clemens is, he fell behind Austin Davis on the depth chart heading into the season.

So what can St Louis do on offense? Before Bradford went down, the only category they ranked above average in was red zone efficiency. Now you can pretty much throw that out the window. Seattle's defense has very few weaknesses, if any. The rate near the top in every meaningful statistic and the best is yet to come for their defensive line.

The only real shot the Rams have is if their defense can come up big. They have some nice pieces on that side of the ball and there are some signs that they are a bend-but-don't-break unit. Their stats suggest they play better as opponents reach the red zone, but I'm not sure it's going to matter against Russell Wilson and company.

The Seahawks offensive line is their one big weakness on that side of the ball, and the Rams do have some playmakers on the line. If they can cause some timely turnovers, this might be an interesting game.

Bottom Line

The question we need to ask ourselves is whether or not Seattle will win by two touchdowns. On paper, they might win by three or four, but this is a lot of points to lay against a home dog in prime-time.

Realistically, it might not matter how well the Rams defense plays because I don't know how their offense will put up enough points. They'll need a perfect storm of favorable things to go their way in this one. I'm taking a pass, but the only real option here is Seattle.