Monday, October 7, 2013

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

Market Watch

In the advance line, the Falcons were touchdown favorites over the Jets, but after Geno Smith's performance in Week 4, and the loss of Santonio Holmes, the line re-opened at -7.5. Almost immediately, the line got bet up out of the teaser zone, and now sits at -9.5/-10, depending on where you look.

This line is a bit inflated, which would seemingly give some value on the Jets, but that all depends on Geno Smith.

Bottom Line

This is a game that I want nothing to do with. I took the Falcons as my survivor pick, but it had more to do with a lack of options than anything else. Jets games are difficult to handicap due to their volatile situation at quarterback. Their defense is capable of keeping them in game, and rookie Sheldon Richardson is the third best rated 3-4 defensive end behind J.J. Watt and Cam Jordan, but the one area they've struggled so far in is on third down. Some of this might have to do with the revolving door at right corner.

Meanwhile, Matt Ryan looks like a Pro-Bowler between the 20's, but he hasn't got the job done when it matters most - in the red zone. Is he no longer "Matty Ice"?  We'll need another playoff to determine that, but perhaps it's unfair to judge him too harshly while he's playing behind a struggling offensive line.

In the end, we have two badly flawed teams. In terms of value, the only side I would look at would be New York, but that would require some blind faith in Geno Smith. The big problem with that is if he gets down a couple scores. It's one thing to have a rookie QB, it's entirely different to have one that is missing weapons playing from behind. I'll take a pass.