Tuesday, October 1, 2013

NFL Preview 2013 Week 5: Bills vs Browns

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns

Market Watch

A week ago, the Browns were -2.5 point favorites. Given that they are at home, this line suggested that the Bills were slightly the better team. Yet, as Hoyer was putting together a second straight solid game, oddsmakers were working on a new point spread. When the dust settled from Week 4, the Browns reopened at -3.5.  That's a key line move as it crosses the key number of 3.

Early money pushed this line all the way up to -4.5, but late money has pushed the line back to -3.5, where it sits now. Where will it close at kickoff?  That's anyone's guess because this is sure to be an ugly game.

Betting is split down the middle with 51 percent on the Bills.

FULL ANALYSIS

Bottom Line

At -3, I might take a long look at backing the Cleveland Browns. At the end of the day though, I can't get behind Brian Hoyer yet. Without a running game, everything falls on his shoulders.

What does give me confidence about the Browns is their ability to matchup against this Bills offense. There just isn't a lot there to be worried about, the Cleveland is more than capable of eliminating the ground game.

What we have here is a situation of which quarterback will step up. E.J. Manuel has been shaky at times, but he's also flashed signs of becoming a really good player in this league. Brian Hoyer has back to back wins, but things can change quickly in this league - especially for inexperienced quarterbacks.