Friday, October 18, 2013

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts: IND +7 (Bodog)

Market Watch

Last week the look-ahead line for this game was Broncos -6. After the Colts had a letdown vs the Chargers, it reopened at -5.5.  That performance, along with the return of Von Miller, has seen early money push this line all the way up to -7 at some books.

I admit that Von Miller can single-handedly transform a defense, but right out of the gate in his first game back?  Enough to inflate this line to a full touchdown on the road?  The tricky thing about Denver is how much to compensate for their offense. It's fair to inflate their point spreads, but by how much?

At the end of the day, I think this is too high. Denver should be favored, but not a full TD.

The public are all over the Broncos, with 77% of the bets in their favor.

FULL ANALYSIS

Bottom Line

Andrew Luck didn't have his best performance last week, but he was also on the bad end of some critical drops by his receivers. I like his matchup this week, in spite of Von Miller. Lots is being made of the return of Champ Bailey too, but he had a below average game in his debut last week. Is Father Time finally catching up to him? Have the injuries slowed him down?

They might not have looked like it on Monday night, but this Colts defense has made big strides this year. Their primary weakness is against the run, so I expect Manning to hand the ball off more than one might expect.

There's a lot of emotion and smacktalk in this one, and I think this will be a competitive game in the fourth quarter. Even if Denver do take control and go up by double digits, there's a great chance for a backdoor cover here. I'll take the points.

NFL Pick: IND +7.