Monday, October 7, 2013

NFL Predictions 2013 Week 6: Giants vs Bears

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears: CHI -7 (Bet365)

Market Watch

Last week this line was -6.5 in the look-ahead. After the weekend it re-opened at Chicago -7.5. It seems to have settled at -7, but there might be some gameday movement depending on the late money.

This might seem like a lot of points to lay, but after a closer look at the Giants, it becomes very clear that this spread could very well be a double digit number.

55% of bets are on the home team.

FULL ANALYSIS

Bottom Line

When you look at all the meaningful statistical categories for the Giants, they rank dead last in four of them. Rushing offense, third down offense, net starting field position, and special teams. On top of that, they rank near the bottom of the league nine more!  Among them are quarterback efficiency, turnover differential, and third down/red zone defense, just to name a few.  It's no wonder why this team is 0-5 straight up and against the spread.

The Bears aren't a flawless team either. On top of some injuries, there are some issues for the home team too. They're pass rush has been poor, which in turn has hurt their pass defense. And they aren't the best team on third down on either side of the ball.

That said, the Giants are traveling on a short week and given how they've played this season, I'd be very surprised if they kept this game within a touchdown. For once, the Bears don't have to rely on defense/special teams to gain them victories. Their offense is actually a strength this year.

NFL Pick: CHI -7.