Friday, October 4, 2013

NFL Predictions 2013 Week 5: Texans vs 49ers

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers: HOU +7 (-130) (5Dimes)

Market Watch

This point spread puzzles me a bit. This line would make more sense to me if the look-ahead line was different, but a week ago LVH had this at -6.5.  When it re-opened after the weekend, it was still at -6.5. The crazy thing is that early money actually bet this up to -7.

Just to be clear, the Texans dominated the best team in the NFC before the Seahawks rallied for an improbable win. The 49ers beat up on what is arguably the worst team in the NFC.  Before that, sharps were actually backing the Rams as home dogs vs the 49ers.

I'm not sure who is going to win this game, and it's not wise to bet against the 49ers at home, but I think this line is too high.  You have to pay some extra juice for the full +7, but even if I had to take +6.5 or +6, I would go ahead and do it. Some books are even dropping this down as low at -5.

52 percent of bets are on the home team.

FULL ANALYSIS

Bottom Line

Is Matt Schaub having a tough season in a year of heightened expectations? Yes. Is it wise to fade Jim Harbaugh at home? Not really.

Yet, I can't pass up on this many points. Despite Houston's issues, they've had stretches of dominant play in every game of the season. The consistency isn't there, but it's not due to injuries. All the key players on both sides of the ball are healthy.

For the 49ers, their defense has suffered a couple of key injuries. Colin Kaepernick hasn't shown me that he's all the way back either. Now he has the unenviable task of going up against J.J. Watt and company.

I'm not sure if Houston win this game, but I do like them to keep it close and cover the number.

NFL Pick: HOU +7.