Wednesday, October 2, 2013

San Diego Chargers vs Oakland Raiders: SD -4 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

A week ago the Chargers were only -3 point favorites in this game. After they took care of business against the Cowboys, it re-opened at -5.  Early sharp money thought that was too much and it's been steadily bet down to -4, where it sits now.

Will money continue to come in on Oakland? I'd be surprised if it did, and I definitely don't see this going back down to -3.

A whopping 84% of bets are on the Chargers.

FULL ANALYSIS

Bottom Line

Both of these teams have performed better than expected this year - especially the Raiders. Some of that is due to Pryor's mobility, but their defense is steppin' up too.

The only problem? Philip Rivers is on fire.  Even with a decimated offensive line, he's getting the ball out quick in this new offensive system, and guys like Gates and Woodhead have been big difference makers.  It won't be a cakewalk, but they should be able to put up a bundle of points again on Sunday night.

Even though the Raiders got pummeled by the Broncos, Pryor actually looked pretty good in the passing game. There will be more growing pains, but Oakland should be competitive in this game. The good news for us is their best weapon, Darren McFadden, is likely out with an injury. This is probably too much pressure on Pryor's shoulders. The offense is too lacking at the skill positions, and the offensive line is still a mess.

I'll lay the points and hope that this resurgence from Rivers isn't a mirage.

NFL Pick: SD -4