Sunday, September 29, 2013

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

Market Watch

In the LVH look-ahead line, the Saints were -5 point favorites. Despite the Dolphins win over the Falcons, sharps were more impressed with the Saints win at home over the Cardinals. The line re-opened at -6 and it's been bet up to -6.5/-7 throughout the week.

That said, it's important to note the line hasn't gone all the way up to -7 (yet). If it does, you can be sure that sharp money will come back on the Dolphins at that number.

74% of the bets are on the Saints.


Bottom Line

Can Tannehill continue to lead the way behind a leaky offensive line? Will the running game find any consistency? Can they stop Cameron Jordan?  The Saints defense will have a huge lift from a wild dome crowd in prime-time. It could be tough for this offense, especially if they are forced to play from behind.

For the Saints, it's likely going to be business as usual. Sean Payton and Drew Brees usually find a way to put up points, and all of their key players are healthy.  I expect Brees to take full advantage of the Wake injury, and he'll be looking Nolan Carroll's way early and often.

I think this is a pretty accurate point spread, which makes it a great option for a teaser. Teasing the Saints down from -7 to -1 essentially makes this a 'pick em'.