Monday, September 16, 2013

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: KC +3.5 (Bodog)

Market Watch

Last week the line for this game had the Philadelphia Eagles at -5 point favorites. Once the final whistle blew on Sunday's games, Vegas re-opened the Eagles as -3 point favorites, but with extra juice. Some sportsbooks opened with the Eagles at -3.5, and there are some places that still have the hook.

54 percent of the bets are on the Eagles so far.

The question we always have to ask ourselves was whether or not this was a fair line move? The trouble is, this is a tricky game to handicap. Both teams have great balance, but of a different kind. Philly is boom and bust, with a high flying offense, but very shaky defense. The Chiefs aren't as lethal offensively, but they are efficient. On defense, they are equally adept - creating lots of matchup problems for opposing quarterbacks.

FULL ANALYSIS

Bottom Line

Due to the short week, most Thursday night football games are sloppier than usual. If this is the case again in this game, the advantage goes to the Chiefs. I think they have enough difference makers on the defensive side of the ball to disrupt the rhythm and timing of Philly's go-go-go offense.

On the flip side, the Chiefs offense is tailor-made to take care of the ball and eat up clock with a run-based, ball possession scheme. We saw some of the Eagles defensive growing pains on full display in Week 2 - especially in the secondary.  I'll take the hook and bank on an underdog cover in Andy Reid's return to the city of brotherly love.

NFL Pick: KC +3.5.