Tuesday, September 10, 2013

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Market Watch

Week 1 is supposed to be the official "overreaction week" for NFL fans and pundits, but the sportsbooks know it doesn't really apply to these two teams. Even though the Jets stock rose and the Patriots stock fell, New England opened as -11.5 point favorites. At some places, this line has even gone up to -13.

It's way too early in the season to quantify a line like this, but the perception is unwavering - these teams aren't even close to each other in the power rankings. In addition, Bill Belichick has a history of outperforming his team stats thanks to great coaching, so even with inflated point spreads, the Patriots cover more times than they should (on paper).

The burning question is whether or not this line is justified, let alone accurate. Thus far, 65% of the bets have come in on New England.


Bottom Line

Usually for Patriots games I'd suggest to ride the favorite or pass. It might sound like square advice, but the Patriots have been great against the spread over recent years. Over the last three seasons, they are 28-19-1.

Yet, this is not a game I'd recommend to back them. In fact, one could make a real argument that the value here is on the Jets. Ultimately, I say stay away from this game altogether. There are far too many questions about the New England offense after the recent injuries, and it's far too early to draw any conclusions about Geno Smith.