Sunday, September 22, 2013

Two weeks of the NFL season are in the books and I don't know too many people who have escaped the carnage. Footballs Outsiders (54.4% ATS lifetime) has started 11-20-1 ATS. The Vegas SuperContest consensus picks are 10-21-1 ATS (top five consensus picks are 2-7-1 ATS). Dogs lead the way through two weeks at 17-14-1, but just slightly.

Both teasers hit in Week 2. In fact, teasing favorites +6 points have now gone 24-6-2 this year (80%). I might increase my plays in that department given how many close games there are. Cincy came up short on the total, but I don't play many of them due to the adjustments made by the books. Thus far, totals are split right down the middle at 16-16 over/under.  Picks against the spread have been tough going so far.  The non-covers are not what bothers me though. What is frustrating is how these picks are losing.

KC, NO, and CHI all won, but didn't cover. Thus far, 23 of 32 games have now finished within one score, and being on the wrong side of them is hard to stomach. In one score games I'm 1-7. Can I get some positive variance please?  Given the small sample size, I can only assume (and hope) that this evens out over the course of the season.

For Week 3 I'll be adding picks throughout the week. Refresh for all the updates.

Survivor Pick

Seattle Seahawks

Week 2: Houston Texans
Week 1: Indianapolis Colts