Sunday, September 8, 2013

Houston Texans vs San Diego Chargers: HOU -3.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Back in May, this line opened at -2.5 in favor of the Texans. It didn't take long until it was bet to -3 and it stuck there through most of training camp and the preseason, albeit with some heavy juice. Now that the games are upon us, money has continued to pour in on Houston and you now have to lay -3.5 if you like that side.

The reason why I'm ok laying the extra half a point is because I don't think it will close at anything lower than -4. There's even a chance it goes up to the -5/-6 range, especially since it's a Monday Night Football game.

85% of bets are on the Texans.

FULL ANALYSIS


Bottom Line

The Chargers really believe that they can make another run with this group of players, but they'll likely find out that this is a ship with too many holes. The new offensive scheme should help Rivers and make this unit more effective, but they get the unfortunate task of facing one of the best defenses in the AFC to kick things off.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans offense knows exactly what they want to do and how to execute it. The Chargers would like to be more creative and throw some creative looks at Houston, but their corners aren't good enough to employ that scheme. They can focus their attention on Andre Johnson, but Foster, Tate, Daniels, and Hopkins will take advantage.

NFL Pick: HOU -3.5.