Sunday, September 8, 2013

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins: WSH -3 (-125) (5Dimes)

Market Watch

Most point spreads for Week 1 of the regular season are usually rounded into shape by now, but this is one of the most curious and puzzling numbers on the board. Why are the Redskins only favored by 3/3.5 at home in a prime-time MNF game against a team going through a severe transition? The only thing I can think of is some anticipated rust from RG3 ... and perhaps some love for Chip Kelly's offense.

In fact, this line opened -5 way back in May. I think that's a lot closer to where this line should be, which is why I'd have no problem laying -3.5 either. We still have the option to grab the -3 with some extra juice if you have multiple books to choose from, but I don't expect any 3's available by kick off.

59% of the bets are on the home favorite.

FULL ANALYSIS


Bottom Line

Not much is known about what this Eagles team will look like in 2013, but what we do know is that there are going to be some growing pains. This is a long-term project for owner Jeffrey Lurie.

Will Chip Kelly's offense offer some excitement and score some points? No question. I love McCoy and Vick still has game. That said, I think Washington's front seven is strong enough to cause some disruptions and force Vick into some bad decisions.

The bigger advantage I see is when the Redskins offense takes the field. I think the Eagles new defense is in for a long night and they should be gassed by the fourth quarter if they're playing from behind. Shanahan's devastating ground game and play-action passing, led by Alfred Morris and RG3, will be too much for Philly to handle.

NFL Pick: WSH -3.