Thursday, August 8, 2013

Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers: ARI +3 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch

Last week the Green Bay Packers opened as -3.5 point favorites vs the Arizona Cardinals. Early action even moved it up to -4 at one point, but since then we've seen a clear move on the road dog.  While I would love to have the extra line value, the late line movement is due to recent information. I still like the play at +2, but obviously not as much as +3. As it stands now, 60% of the action is still on the home team.

Full analysis 

Bottom Line

Mike McCarthy is not dealing from a position of strength with his QB depth. His record in NFLX openers the last few years might be indicative of a cautious approach. McCarthy is also 0-3 in his last three preseason openers.

Digging deeper, he's 10-4 in weeks 2 and 3, but 4-10 in weeks 1 and 4. On the flip side, I really like the QB depth for the Cardinals and Bruce Arians' is a new coach trying to instill a "culture change". I'll take the extra points and see how it shakes out.

NFL Pick: ARI +3 (-101).