Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens: BAL -4.5 (Pinnacle)

Market Watch 

In Week 1 of the preseason, most home teams were given the obligatory -3 points and the market adjusted itself afterwards. However, now that we've seen these teams in action, the markets look dramatically different for Week 2.

In the case of the Falcons and Ravens, Baltimore opened up at -4.5 home favorites due to Atlanta's lackluster effort against Cincinnati. Some thought this was a bit of an overreaction as we saw the line dip to -4 for a day or two, but the line has resettled as -4.5 as we speak. There are some hints that more action will come in on the Ravens as some -5's are popping up on the board.


Bottom Line 

When you favor a team by more than a field goal in a preseason game there better be a good reason for it. In this case there are multiple good reasons at work. The coaching styles are significantly different and Mike Smith just might become an automatic fade the way Tony Dungy was in Indianapolis.

On top of that, the quarterback rotation and offensive line situations favor the Ravens. Even if we had to lay a touchdown in this game, I might have considered it.

NFL Pick: Ravens -4.5 (-102).