Sunday, December 30, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012: Week 17

Favorites finished 9-7 ATS for the second week in a row.  Dogs still hold a 126-107-7 overall edge (54.1%) heading into the final week.  Once hovering around 60+%, things have regressed closer to the mean as expected.

Week 16 Recap

NFL Picks 2012: Week 17 predictions
It was a much better week with the only spread loss coming from the Giants.  Although I don't think I was the only one surprised with how the G-men responded to their drubbing in Atlanta.  Aren't these guys the defending champions who know how to rise up in character-testing situations?  They are also supposed to be well-suite for the road, but something is clearly amiss in NY at the moment.  Give the Ravens credit for dismissing their slump.

The Colts came up short on the team total, but thankfully they covered the spread despite heavy money coming in against them on game day.  The Texans also got trounced to spoil the teaser.  It was shocking to see their O-line get dominated like that. Even though I picked them as a Super Bowl pick, I'd be naive not to reconsider that once the playoffs start.

Week 17 Picks

Note*: with so many games featuring meaningless action, this is perhaps one of the most tricky weeks to handicap.  It's like a week of preseason, but without all the forthcoming knowledge from coaches. If news trickles out, I might be adding more late picks on Friday/Saturday.

Packers vs Vikings

Buccaneers vs Falcons

Texans vs Colts

Pending...

Survivor Pick

I was curious to see which of the Panthers, Redskins, or Colts would spoil the party for survivor pools in Week 16, but everyone did their jobs.  We've finally reached the end and TeamRankings has you covered in depth with all your options.

Given that I've already taken the Giants, Seahawks, and other big favorites this year, I'd be stuck with the Titans as my option for the final week.  I wouldn't feel great about that pick, but the Eagles could be dangerous on Sunday. With Vick back and Reid's last game as coach, they might be up for a surprise against their division rival. The Giants aren't playing great ball right now and Philly has a history of winning these types of games at the end of the season.  Seattle is a great choice given how they play at home. I'm a big fan of what the Rams have done this year, but it would take a great game on their part combined with a subpar effort the Seattle to pull off the upset. Fading the Jaguars is a logical step to close out the season.