Saturday, December 29, 2012

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons: TB +3.5 (Pinnacle)

Markets

This game was off the board for most of the week, but the Falcons opened up as -5 point favorites.  This was quickly bet down to where it is now, -3.5.  The look ahead line on this game is pretty much meaningless given the circumstances, but let's just agree that the Falcons are being overvalued here.

Bottom Line

I would like to provide some analysis, but there isn't much to give.  Mike Smith is notorious for talking out of both sides of his mouth when it comes to his intentions for a game.  In the preseason he keeps things close to his vest and often does the opposite once kickoff arrives.  I can't believe that he is going to treat this like every other game and play everyone up until the final whistle.  I know the Bucs have been bad recently and that might not change, but this is more of a situational play than an X's and O's play.  Give me +3.5 points against a team with everything wrapped up and I'll take it every time.

NFL Pick: TB +3.5.