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Sunday, December 23, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012: Week 16

Favorites continued to claw back into the fight in Week 15 finishing 9-7 ATS.  Dogs still hold a 119-98-7 overall edge (54.8%) overall.

Week 15 Recap

NFL Picks 2012: Week 16 predictions
Given how close the point spreads were for Week 15, not very many games held much suspense. This means if you were on the right side, you won big.  If you had the wrong side, you could have torn up your ticket at half time.  That was the case for my TB and STL picks.

What has happened to Josh Freeman?  It's one thing to be inconsistent, but it's entirely different to toil away at the extremes of the pendulum. He had 5 turnovers, while Brees had 4 TDs. I'd like to pretend there was more to the game than that, but those numbers speak for themselves.  The Rams had no idea what to do with Peterson. They are actually a pretty disciplined team vs the run and usually do well with their gap control.  None of that mattered as Peterson made an MVP statement with over 200+ yards on the ground, in spite of a non-existent passing game. This game had the most disagreement in the poll, so props to you if you had the Vikes.

The uneventful day was saved by compelling showdowns in Dallas and New England.  Ironically, it was Big Ben who had the turnover in crunch time which sank my pick on the Steelers. Stuff like that happens, but it was the first time the Cowboys have covered at home all year.  Ouch.

I didn't have a pick in the 49ers/Patriots game, but I think it's safe to say this one sums up this league in a nutshell.  Who would've thought a team like the 49ers would give up a 28 point lead in the 2nd half?  I know Tom Brady is Tom Brady, but I'm happy I didn't have a bet on this one for the sake of my health.  Can we put the parade in New England on hold now?  No team is going to run away with the title in December.

Week 16 Picks

Falcons vs Lions

Giants vs Ravens

Colts vs Chiefs

49ers vs Seahawks


Team Totals

Survivor Pick

There were only 3 obvious choices for survivor picks in Week 15 and the Lions got 38.27% of the vote!  It would seriously suck to come this far and lose to the Cardinals!  The Dolphins and Seahawks took care of business rather easily as only 6% went with "other".

If you've survived this long and still have big favorites in your back pocket, congrats because you can start counting your money soon.  For those who need mid-road options, the choices are fun this week.  I'll weigh in with my pick on Friday.  TeamRankings still have great coverage until the end of the season here.

Surprisingly, the Eagles have shown some life of late and it's a divisional game, so I'd pass on the Redskins.  The Panthers are a decent choice, but despite their recent play it's hard to trust a team that consistently underperforms their stats. The easy choice for me would be the Colts, who have actually outplayed their stats (especially on D).  Fade the lowly Chiefs if you're still in a survivor pool.

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Team Props: 57-36 (+40.51u)
Totals: 121-124-13 (-20.67)
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Grand Salamis: 3-9 (-13.12u)

Futures: 3-12 (+0.5u)

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NHL 2017/2018

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54-66-0 (-10.31u)
24-26 (+1.5u)
0-2 (-4u)

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124-132 (+34.13u)
51-53 (+6.86u)
6-5 (+5.6)

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10-12 (-5.13)
8-8-1 (-0.3u)

1-3 (+5u)

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Player Props: 16-7-1 (+14.75u)
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Futures: 1-2 (+1.5u)


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Props: 288-242