Saturday, December 22, 2012

NFL Predictions 2012 Week 16: Colts vs Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs: IND -6.5 (5Dimes)

Markets

The Colts were -6 point favorites on the Vegas look-ahead line, and it re-opened at the same spot after Week 15.  Huh?  Surely they must have known this spread would be bet to -7?  Sometimes books take a position on a game, but I don't see that being the case in this spot.  This was a soft line and right now it sits around -6.75 as a lot of shops.

If you want to buy an affordable -6.5 you have that option, or lay the full touchdown at 'even' money.

Story

As I pointed out in the Jets/Titans game last week, "motivation" is often overrated.  I did include a caveat though.  When a team has clearly tanked on a season, it could be time to pounce.  Right now the Chiefs actually have motivation to lose.  There might not be a clear-cut franchise #1 overall pick in the draft, but this organization would do themselves a lot of favors if they finished 32nd.

On the other side of the coin, the Colts can secure a playoff spot with a win. Often, this can be a dangerous position for a team, especially when the opponent is so weak.

In terms of X's and O's, let's stop to look at the KC O-line for a moment. They have a rookie LT and LG, an out of position center, and a RG donning a cast.  They skated through the first half of the season without any depth beyond their starters whatsoever, so now they are in trouble.

The Colts pass rush isn't anything special and their defense remains one of the worst in the league, but it doesn't have to be good to disrupt this offense. I'm not going to list all the stats, but they are woefully low in over a dozen important categories. 

Bottom Line

I didn't even need to mention Andrew Luck, but he's a big reason why they should top the Chiefs by double digits.  In fact, they should be able to win this game by sheer attrition alone.  I would say that there's a chance they rise up and shock us all, but they might have the dumbest coaches in the league.  Give me the Colts all day.

NFL Pick: IND -6.5.