Friday, December 14, 2012

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears: GB -3 (Pinnacle)


NFL Picks 2012: Packers vs Bears
The Green Bay Packers might only be 7-6 ATS this season, but let's not kid anybody.  This team will once again be a real threat to win the Super Bowl.  So someone will need to explain to me why the Bears were -1 favorites in the Vegas look-ahead line last week?  Apparently books came to their senses and re-opened Green Bay as -3 favorites this week.  This is a much more accurate point spread, but I don't think it's enough.

UPDATE: Late money has moved this line in favor of the Bears.  It always takes a lot to move a line off the "3", so great value can be had with Green Bay -2.5.

Deja Vu?

The first time these teams met I actually had the Bears.  I bought into what they were selling on offense and assumed they had enough balance to cover +5.5 points.  The trouble was their O-line rendered all hopes meaningless as the Packers sacked Cutler seven times.  Dom Capers also did a masterful job taking Marshall out of the game with braket-coverage.

What has changed since then?  Not a whole lot.  The Bears O-line continues to toil away near the bottom and Clay Matthews is set to return just in time to renew acquaintances.  What adjustments will Chicago do?  Don't expect any surprises because these teams know each other inside and out.  Instead, this game will come down to execution and turnovers.

Green Bay will be without Woodson and Nelson again, but Matthews return up front will significantly aid the secondary and Randall Cobb has emerged as a dangerous threat all over the field.  Chicago have injury concerns of their own as Urlacher and Jennings are both sidelined with injuries.

Bottom Line

This game doesn't need a ton of analysis for obvious reasons. The Packers own the Bears, and I see no reason why Sunday will be any different.  Let's continue to fade Cutler in the big moments.

NFL Pick: GB -3.