Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears: GB -3 (Pinnacle)Markets
UPDATE: Late money has moved this line in favor of the Bears. It always takes a lot to move a line off the "3", so great value can be had with Green Bay -2.5.
Deja Vu?The first time these teams met I actually had the Bears. I bought into what they were selling on offense and assumed they had enough balance to cover +5.5 points. The trouble was their O-line rendered all hopes meaningless as the Packers sacked Cutler seven times. Dom Capers also did a masterful job taking Marshall out of the game with braket-coverage.
What has changed since then? Not a whole lot. The Bears O-line continues to toil away near the bottom and Clay Matthews is set to return just in time to renew acquaintances. What adjustments will Chicago do? Don't expect any surprises because these teams know each other inside and out. Instead, this game will come down to execution and turnovers.
Green Bay will be without Woodson and Nelson again, but Matthews return up front will significantly aid the secondary and Randall Cobb has emerged as a dangerous threat all over the field. Chicago have injury concerns of their own as Urlacher and Jennings are both sidelined with injuries.
Bottom LineThis game doesn't need a ton of analysis for obvious reasons. The Packers own the Bears, and I see no reason why Sunday will be any different. Let's continue to fade Cutler in the big moments.
NFL Pick: GB -3.