Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints: TB +4 (Bodog)
NoteworthyThe Saints have had trouble establishing a reliable running game this season and now they face the most efficient run defense in the NFL. This has put too much pressure on Brees, who has 9 interceptions in the last 3 games. It hasn't helped that they actually thought a playoff run was in sight. With that gone, they're doing their best to tell the media and its fans that they're just as committed to winning. That looks good in print, but not so great on the field. On the bright side, if Brees is on his game and he wants to pad his stats, the Bucs pass defense would be the one to do it against. Like a lot of Saints games, if they want to come out on top they'll need to outscore everyone through the air and limit the mistakes. Unfortunately, that formula isn't working in 2012.
The bigger problems come with the Saints defense. It seems like whenever a team is in a slump, they turn things around once they face New Orleans. Cue the Tampa Bay Bucs who are sliding after their impressive win streak. I expect Freeman to get back on track and he should have a much better completion percentage on Sunday than he's had in the last two games. Making the task even tougher for the Saints is their league worst run defense. Doug Martin should be able to improve his rookie totals against this porous unit.