I made the Ravens my best bet of the week, so naturally I like them to exceed 23 points. The weather should be fine which will give them the option pass and kick field goals without an issue. They have a significant edge in the run game and better red zone efficiency. Baltimore also rank near the very top in special teams and could benefit from a Weeden turnover or two.
Peyton is hitting his stride and even when he's not on his game, he usually comes around in time to rack up points. The Bengals ranked near the bottom in run, pass, and third down defense heading into the bye. The Broncos rank near the top in every meaningful category, including drive success rate and third down conversions.
The Bucs have been inconsistent on offense, but they've come alive the last few weeks. Now they have the chance to play a defense that ranks below average against both the run and the pass. The Raiders pass rush has also been pretty poor this year (their game vs KC notwithstanding), along with their red zone defense. Conversely, the Bucs red zone offense has been surprisingly efficient, ranking near the top. Palmer is always a threat to turn the ball over as well.
PropsProps from Bodog and 5Dimes.
J Jones O75.5 receiving yards
J Jones more receiving yards than Bryant
L McCoy O90.5 rushing yards
Maclin O62.5 receiving yards
Graham -12.5 rec yards vs Celek